Exclusive - SNP true plans for Independence and when Nicola will step down.

Well, I never thought so early in my blogging career I would be able to bring you an exclusive story.

I have it on good authority from a source deep within the SNP, who is actually planning to defect to Alba after the election because of this, that there are actually two Independence plans.

I know your asking, why have they come to me and not someone like Wings or Craig Murray. Simply because they are a family friend, so I am easily able to verify both their identity, position within the SNP and how they would come to have access to this information.

The first plan is for an SNP majority government and the second is for an SNP minority with Alba gaining more seats than the Greens.

I'll start with the SNP majority first.

As you will already know from the 11 point plan and various statements made by the First Minister and several senior SNP politicians, the first step is to request a Section 30 from Westminster.

This will not happen until after the coronavirus situation is declared no longer a risk in the UK (note the UK bit, as it effectively means when Westminster declare it to be over, or when the whole of the UK is free of covid).

I am assuming from this that the risk referred to is just to the health of the nation and not the economic effects, this might alleviate some peoples fears that we would have to try and repair the damage to our economy first, within the UK.

The SNP strongly believe that the Section 30 will be refused.

There will then be a motion tabled in Holyrood to proceed with a referendum without the consent of Westminster.

This is expected to be challenged in court and expected to be both complicated, lengthy and ultimately fail on technicalities.

The legal process is expected to conclude soon after the 2026 Holyrood elections, and those elections will be fought on the basis the SNP needs to be in power to implement a successful outcome in the legal process, despite the expectation of it failing (this is both cynical and dishonest).

Should it conclude early, before the 2026 elections, the plan pre or post-election will be the same.

Nicola Sturgeon will step down to be replaced by someone who will be seen by the public as able to take the next step and provide fresh impetus.

This is expected to be Angus Robertson.

The next election, most likely 2031, will be fought as a plebiscite to start negotiations on Independence. 

Note the plebiscite is not on Independence but to start negotiations on Independence, ten years later than Alba who states negotiation should start in the first week on the new Parliamentary term of 2021.

The SNP expects that if it wins this plebiscite Westminster will at this point, finally agree to a section 30 and that the subsequent referendum will be held in that parliamentary term. There are no plans for the refusal of a Section 30 at this point.

The SNP believe by this point the economic effects of Brexit will have largely been resolved or have been accepted as the new norm by the vast majority of the population,

Indeed they foresee the possibility of a change in government in Westminster who may be seeking to rejoin the EU trading block, negating the argument for Scotland becoming Independent to rejoin the EU.

This is expected to result in a decrease in support for Independence, but the argument will be made that Scotlands Independence was never solely about EU membership, it was about having control over our own affairs. 

Should Scotland vote in favour of Independence, the negotiation period will be set as 5 years, the rationale for this will be the Brexit negotiations, which were originally set to be 2 years, but took 4 and still ended up in a mess, so to get the right deal for Scotland, we need 5 years.

During this period the SNP would expect Westminster to grant more devolved powers to Holyrood in preparation for full Independence.

This will take us beyond the 2036 election, which the SNP expect to win on the basis of the ongoing negotiations and the increase in devolved powers granted by Westminster.

Because of the time that will have passed between the Independence referendum and the conclusion of the negotiations a second referendum will be held on the approval of the deal.

There will be no objection to this from Westminster, although they are expected to insist that a rejection of the deal is a rejection of Independence.

The SNP expect the results of this referendum to be very close, given that the deal will contain both positives and negatives for Scotland.

Should the deal be rejected in this referendum, the SNP will make the case at the 2041 election that Scotland needs more powers to build the economy to be ready for Independence.

Should the second Independence referendum fail to secure a Yes majority, future campaigns will be based on the same premise as the rejection of the deal referendum i.e. the need for more powers.

OK, so that's the plan if the SNP get a majority, over 15 years at least until Independence, but most likely transforming the SNP into a devolutionist party arguing it needs more powers before Scotland can be ready to consider Independence again.

So what about the plan if Alba does well in the upcoming elections.

The SNP do not expect Abla to perform well in the Holyrood 2021 elections but do expect them to pick up one or two seats, but still fall behind the Greens.

Therefore the Greens will be relied upon to support the SNP should the numbers be tight and Alba can be sidelined.

Should Alba outperform the Greens the primary focus will be to discredit Alba by any means necessary.

Alex Salmond will be the primary focus of this campaign, focusing on his suitability.

Any other Alba MSPs will be under close scrutiny for any misdemeanours in their personal or financial affairs that can be weaponised to discredit them and their party.

This will have the effect of reducing the risk of SNP MSPs defecting to Alba and destroying the chances of the party growing to become a force in any subsequent elections.

The ultimate aim is to assign Alba to history as a one-term only ego-driven party, much in the same vein as the SSP were in the first Scottish Parliament.

So there you have it.

You might call into question my sources and the validity of these plans.

But when people say that there is no way the SNP could delay an Independence referendum beyond this Parliamentary term, this demonstrates that it is indeed possible.

There could of course be other unforeseen reasons, such as a new pandemic or some other crisis, that could be used for further delays.

The reality is we need a strong Independence supporting opposition to the SNP to make sure they cannot delay any further.

And to anyone who wants to call me a conspiracy theorist let me set you straight (and come clean).

This article is not a leak, these are not actual SNP plans. I don't know anybody in the SNP hierarchy.

This article is a work of fiction, a warning never to assume, never be led by false promises.

We have had promises of a referendum several times, with deadlines, statements of when and how.

Mandates given, mandates wasted, promises broken.

All of the above could happen if you keep giving your votes only to the SNP.

We have in our history, political Parties like Labour, with overwhelming support in Scotland that has been taken advantage of, taken for granted, and become nothing more than a career path built on neverending unfulfilled promises and tribalism.

This is the point that the SNP now find itself in, but it doesn't have to be like that.

This time give the SNP a real opposition, give them something to fear, because they aren't getting that any time soon from Labour, Tories, Lib-Dems or Greens.

Help build a party that can take the list votes from the SNP and do something constructive with them.

An alternative party that Independence MSPs can defect to and keep the SNP constantly on their toes to deliver Independence in this parliamentary term.

Both Votes Yes.

Vote SNP 1 & Alba 2.