Financial Times proves Alba vote is best for Independence


Today has been seen by many as proof that Alba is finished and is only doing damage to the Independence movement based on 2 new polls.

It has to be said that the vast majority of those shouting this from the rafters are SNP 1&2 evangelists, closely followed by SNP 1 Green 2 evangelists.

But the reality is that it is the failure of these anti-Alba evangelists to realise the potential opportunity that is causing the real damage.

Because not only are they extremely vocal, they are also spreading quite a vast amount of misinformation, much in the same way as pro-Brexit campaigners did in the EU referendum.

And scarcely, it is a tactic that works, because you end up fighting so many fires, proving them wrong with facts, that you inevitably miss a few and many people just see the initial lie and not the fact-based rebuttal.

But back to the point, why are they wrong to say Alba is doing damage?

To prove that point I will use the Financial Times Scottish election calculator so there can be no accusations that my calculations are biased.



On this first slide, you will notice that I have put Alba on 0% of the vote.

Therefore no seats for Alba, 68 for the SNP, 10 for the Greens and crucially 78 pro-Independence MSPs.

So let's start increasing the Alba vote and see how that affects the results.


So with Alba on 1.5% of the vote we see the first change caused by voting Alba, The SNP lose a list seat to the Greens.

But the number of pro-Independence MSPs remains exactly the same, so no damage.


The next change we see is with Alba at 5.1% of the vote.

Alba gains 2 seats, the SNP drop another but are still in a majority and the Greens fall back to 10.

But again the number of pro-Independence MSPs remains exactly the same, so still no damage.


Now a very small jump of just 0.2% to 5.3% for Alba and it starts getting interesting.

SNP and Greens remain static, but Alba gain a list seat from Labour and we see the first increase in pro-Independence MSPs, with 1 extra seat.

So we have gone from no damage to positive gains.

So what's behind all these claims of Alba doing damage to Independence?


So another small jump in Alba share of the vote and what is the damage?

No damage, SNP & Greens static again, but Labour loses yet another seat to Alba.

We have now gained 2 pro-Independence MSPs thanks to Alba, and the SNP remain in the majority.

Remember these are not my calculations, they are the Financial Times.

These claims of Alba doing damage are beginning to look a little silly.


Again another tiny jump for Alba to 5.8%, and that's an important point, small increases in support for Alba make a much bigger impact than SNP list votes could ever do.

Static for SNP & Greens, still no sign of any evidence to support claims of Alba doing any damage.

This time Alba gain a seat from the Tories and we are now up with 3 pro-Independence MSPs that we would not have had if Alba did not exist.



OK, are you seeing a pattern yet?

A small increase in Alba support, SNP and Greens Static and Alba taking another seat from the unionists (Labour this time).

And again - NO DAMAGE to the independence movement.


Up to 6.4% for Alba for the next change to happen, so by Alba standards a big jump.

If you are a pure SNP 1&2 evangelist, you will see this as proof of damage because your beloved party loses 1 list seat and goes from a majority to holding exactly 50% of the seats.

But the seat you lost is going to the Greens, it is not Alba stealing your seats, maybe the Greens shouldn't stand on the list if it's going to cost you an absolute majority? 

And of course, the pro-Independence MSPs total is totally unaffected.

So again, absolutely no damage to the number of pro-Independence MSPs caused by Alba.


The tiniest possible increase in Alba support to 6.5% and more positives.

Alba takes another list seat from the Tories.

The number of pro-Independence MSPs increases to 83, 5 more than would have been possible without the existence of Alba.

And SNP and Greens are unaffected by the 0.1% increase in Alba support.

This could very well be as high as Alba are going to get, but let's continue just to see what is possible and if any damage is even theoretically possible.


So the next change to any parties allocated seats requires a big jump from 6.5% to 10.3%.

Alba gains a seat at the expense of the Greens, but the number of pro-Independence MSPs remains static.

No damage.


A small jump to 10.9% for Alba and we're in that old familiar pattern, no change for SNP or Greens and Alba taking a seat from a unionist party (Labour this time).

So again no damage, only gains.


Alba gains a seat at the expense of the Greens, but the number of pro-Independence MSPs remains static.

No damage.

From this point, there are no more changes to SNP or Greens list seats and Alba only take more seats from unionist parties, so I'll jump ahead to the final change we see with the calculator with Alba at 19.5%.



Worst-case scenario:

The SNP only get 50% of the seats in Holyrood, by losing 3 seats, but still 2 seats more than 2016.

The Greens take 2 of those seats from the SNP, Alba takes 1 seat from the SNP (but gains many more).

Therefore the Greens are doing more damage to Independence than Alba if you go by the evangelists logic.

Best-case scenario:

Alba gains 18 seats and overtakes both Labour and Tories in Holyrood.

SNP gains 2 seats from 2016 with 50% of the seats in Holyrood.

Greens gain 2 seats from 2016.

13 MORE pro-Independence MSPs.

Tories LOSE 14 seats.

Labour LOSE 7 seats.

Lib-Dems LOSE 1 seat.

So to all those SNP 1&2 or SNP 1 Greens 2 evangelists - 

HOW ARE ALBA DOING DAMAGE TO INDEPENDENCE?

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