Latest List Seat Predictions


OK, it's time to channel my inner Mystic Meg.

I've been spending the last few days constructing my own modelling to specifically predict the outcome of List seats in this forthcoming election.

Based on the latest opinion poll from Panelbase I've seen predictions of 5 or 6 seats for Alba.

Now obviously there are different models out there and they will produce slightly different results, and my model is no exception.

I did wonder how sophisticated the models for predicting list seats are, for instance, have they been modified to account for a list only party, are they taking into account regional variations in voting intentions and local issues that may sway voters in certain constituencies?

So will my model do any better, well only time will tell?

But because polls tend to get more accurate the closer we get to polling day, the same applies to the modelling for seat projections.

There is also the question of how accurate the polls are in this new reality of a list only Independence party that will actually win seats.

We haven't been here before.

It could be that Alba votes are being overstated because people who sign up to polling companies tend to be more politically engaged and would be more aware of the new party.

It could be Alba votes are being understated because they are appealing to a demographic that is not politically engaged and doesn't typically vote or sign up to polling companies.

Indeed Kenny MacAskill said recently that Alba is targeting the voters in less affluent areas who voted in the 2014 referendum but don't typically vote in Holyrood or indeed Westminster elections.

I have to say I'm not sure how successful this strategy can be in the middle of a pandemic and without all the grassroots activism and indy marches going on.

Anyway, below are the results from my model, 

The results are definitely different from other modelling results.

For example, some other modelling shows the Greens gaining 4 seats, whereas in mine they make only 1 gain, I suspect my modelling is more accurate in this instance since the SNP are hammering home SNP 1&2 like never before, so it seems unlikely that any drift of this level towards the Greens in the list that's being shown in the polls is genuine

My model shows Alba on 4 seats, less than the other models.

As someone who is supporting Alba, I see this as both good and bad news.

I would of course like more seats than this, but it does show that my modelling has not been skewed by any personal bias and for a brand new party this is a great start.

And my model does show an increase of indy MSPs even if it's only 1 seat.

But as I have already said it is early days.








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