Sensational Poll Predicts 16 Seats For Alba


Sorry (but not sorry) for the clickbait headline, but it is no more sensationalist than the Couriers headline for its article about this poll predicting the demise of Alba just 3 days after it was launched.

One of the interesting things I noticed in the poll was the 17% of respondents who thought Alex Salmond was an asset to the independence movement which seemed at odds with the 3% who would vote for Alba.

It has already been pointed out that some of those could in fact be unionists who fear Alex Salmond, some of them could be SNP voters who wouldn't dream of voting for Alba on the list.

But I thought, why not be an optimist for a change and assume these are all potential Alba voters and at the very least we would get an idea of what the upper limit of Alba seats would be in each region according to this poll's results.

So here are the results for the list votes only, it assumes 17% of votes for Alba but with no corresponding reduction in any other party's votes, so the results very much favour all the other parties.

I'd draw your attention to a few facts.

1. The SNP would only lose 2 seats, compared to 16 gains for Alba.

2. Unionist parties would lose 11 seats.

3. The number of indy MSPs would increase in all regions.

Central Scotland

SNP 0 (-)

Lab 3 (-1)

Con 2 (-1)

Alba 2 (+2)

Green 0 (-)

LibDem 0 (-)

Net indy gain +2


Glasgow

SNP 0 (-)

Lab 3 (-1)

Con 1 (-1)

Alba 2 (+2)

Green 1 (-)

LibDem 0 (-)

Net indy gain +2


Highlands and Islands

SNP 1 (-1)

Lab 1 (-1)

Con 3 (-)

Alba 2 (+2)

Green 1 (-)

LibDem  (-)

Net indy gain +1


Lothian

SNP 0 (-)

Lab 2 (-)

Con 2 (-1)

Alba 2 (+2)

Green 1 (-1)

LibDem 0 (-)

Net indy gain +1


Mid Scotland and Fife

SNP 0 (-)

Lab 2 (-)

Con 3 (-1)

Alba 2 (+2)

Green 0 (-1)

LibDem 0 (-)

Net indy gain +1


North East Scotland

SNP 0 (-)

Lab 2 (-)

Con 3 (-1)

Alba 2 (+2)

Green 0 (-)

LibDem 0 (-1)

Net indy gain +2


South Scotland

SNP 2 (-1)

Lab 2 (-)

Con 1 (-1)

Alba 2 (+2)

Green 0 (-)

LibDem 0 (-)

Net indy gain +1


West Scotland

SNP 0 (-)

Lab 3 (-)

Con 2 (-1)

Alba 2 (+2)

Green 0 (-1)

LibDem 0 (-)

Net indy gain +1


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Update on DC Thomson poll

Image
So we have more info on the DC Thomson poll. There are some reports that the questions asked were pretty standard and did indeed ask specifically about Alba, although the popularity ratings result still look very suspicious to me, that could be an in-house bias with the polling company or evidence that the concerted effort from all political sides, including the SNP, has had the desired effect. Someone on ScotGoesPop suggested that the fieldwork was from the 18th of March, but that doesn't make sense and the official fieldwork dates are given as 29-30 March. That's probably as quick as you could possibly put together a poll after the launch of Alba so we're still left with the impression that this was a rush job to try and kill off Alba before they had any chance to make any headway in the polls. And indeed the unionists and SNP loyalists have jumped on it as proof that Alba is dead in the water. However, others seem quite reassured and positive that Alba managed 3% just 3 ...
Read more

Alba soar in latest Poll

Image
As predicted in my previous post the latest poll from Panelbase as reported by James Kelly HERE  makes the Courier/DC Thomson poll look like the rush job designed purely to try a kill the threat of Alba at birth. With the dataset finally released for the Courier poll, we can finally say that support for Alba varied by quite a margin, with some regions as high as 5% and some as low as 1%. Of course, this was to be expected as nobody would expect the traditionally conservative South of Scotland to be attracted by the prospect of another independence party. So this will of course mean that the 6% Panelbase shows in this latest poll is equally varied by region and will result in more seats than others in those regions where support is higher. The other point I made was the exclusion of Alex Salmond from the leaders' debate and his complaint to OFCOM in regard to this exclusion. I said we needed another poll showing increased support before OFCOM made any ruling and here it is showing A...
Read more

My thoughts on Independent candidates

Image
I have always found party politics to be largely off-putting. It inevitably attracts careerists, especially to the most popular party, who want the party money, machinery, and status to add legitimacy to their campaign and careers. Independent candidates, on the other hand, choose to reject all those advantages. Some will be doing this because they have fallen out with, kicked out, or been rejected by the established parties. Others will be standing on single issues, probably not expecting to win, but hoping to raise awareness of whatever issue it is they feel is not being addressed. Then of course you'll get the people doing it for a laugh or the attention, the joke candidates who are not stealing any votes from serious candidates and can be safely ignored. It doesn't need to be said that the chance of an independent candidate beating the favourite party candidate in any constituency is low, but the chances are better standing as a list candidate. It can only really be done by...
Read more