Iam Scott politics blog

In my last article , I talked about the way the state could and probably does try and influence the outcomes in Scottish politics by trying to sow division and disenfranchisement amongst Independence supporters. But there are other groups trying to influence the outcomes of the election to further their own agendas. And let's be clear, there is nothing wrong with any group trying to influence people to vote in a certain way, so long as you do it honestly i.e. make your case and persuade voters or the merits of your agenda. Where it becomes a problem is when agendas are hidden. Now we step into the controversial issue of gender politics in Scotland. Let's be clear, in this article I am not advocating for one side or the other in the gender reform debate, as that would detract from the whole point of the article, although so toxic is this debate that I am sure I will get abuse for pointing out what follows. On social media platforms like Twitter, you will see a lot of people advo...

Apparently, I'm a fake Yesser. I'm actually a Unionist! Actually, it's worse than that, I'm a member of something called the  #77thBrigade As someone who voted Yes in 2014 and attended numerous indy marches, tweeted and retweeted in support of independence for years, you can imagine just how shocked I was to find this out about myself. Just goes to show, you think you know yourself, but you really don't. To find out who you really are you need someone like @JohnCoy29071630 on Twitter to tell you. To put this into context, I replied to this tweet by @JohnCoy29071630 "More & more I'm seeing people who say they are Supporters of the Alba Party, saying they don't want Independence now. Anyone who Is true supporter of Scottish Independence, would never act that way. Whatever their motives are Independence for Scotland Is definitely not one." So it is clear that he is trying to smear Alba and its supporters as not true Independence supporters. And pr...

Today has been seen by many as proof that Alba is finished and is only doing damage to the Independence movement based on 2 new polls. It has to be said that the vast majority of those shouting this from the rafters are SNP 1&2 evangelists, closely followed by SNP 1 Green 2 evangelists. But the reality is that it is the failure of these anti-Alba evangelists to realise the potential opportunity that is causing the real damage. Because not only are they extremely vocal, they are also spreading quite a vast amount of misinformation, much in the same way as pro-Brexit campaigners did in the EU referendum. And scarcely, it is a tactic that works, because you end up fighting so many fires, proving them wrong with facts, that you inevitably miss a few and many people just see the initial lie and not the fact-based rebuttal. But back to the point, why are they wrong to say Alba is doing damage? To prove that point I will use the Financial Times Scottish election calculator so there can be...

OK, it's time to channel my inner Mystic Meg. I've been spending the last few days constructing my own modelling to specifically predict the outcome of List seats in this forthcoming election. Based on the latest opinion poll from Panelbase I've seen predictions of 5 or 6 seats for Alba. Now obviously there are different models out there and they will produce slightly different results, and my model is no exception. I did wonder how sophisticated the models for predicting list seats are, for instance, have they been modified to account for a list only party, are they taking into account regional variations in voting intentions and local issues that may sway voters in certain constituencies? So will my model do any better, well only time will tell? But because polls tend to get more accurate the closer we get to polling day, the same applies to the modelling for seat projections. There is also the question of how accurate the polls are in this new reality of a list only Inde...

Well, I never thought so early in my blogging career I would be able to bring you an exclusive story. I have it on good authority from a source deep within the SNP, who is actually planning to defect to Alba after the election because of this, that there are actually two Independence plans. I know your asking, why have they come to me and not someone like Wings or Craig Murray. Simply because they are a family friend, so I am easily able to verify both their identity, position within the SNP and how they would come to have access to this information. The first plan is for an SNP majority government and the second is for an SNP minority with Alba gaining more seats than the Greens. I'll start with the SNP majority first. As you will already know from the 11 point plan and various statements made by the First Minister and several senior SNP politicians, the first step is to request a Section 30 from Westminster. This will not happen until after the coronavirus situation is declared n...

The D'Hount voting system isn't actually that hard to understand. It consists of two parts. 1. Constituency vote - a simple first past the post system for the named candidate, just like Westminster elections. 2. AMS - the additional member system, sometimes called the party vote or the list vote because each party puts forward a list of candidates that are allocated according to a formula to represent a more proportional makeup in the Scottish Parliament. Alba as you may know is the only party standing only for AMS (list) seats. In each region, the AMS system allocates 7 seats over 7 rounds by dividing the list votes for each party by the number of constituency seats + list seats gained in each round + 1. The plus one is needed because if you divided the list vote for a party that didn't win any constituency seats by zero, the result would be zero votes. So in each of the seven rounds, the party with the highest total after the divisor has been applied wins that rounds seat...

I've seen many people ask the question "Why do we need Alba, with the Greens we already have two Independence supporting parties, so surely we should vote for the established Greens" There are a few problems with this idea. Firstly the SNP argue that only an SNP majority will be recognised by Boris Johnson, even though Boris Johnson says that wouldn't even be enough. This is because the Greens are primarily a party who's focus is on environmental issues. Independence is secondary and only as a means to further environmental issues. So any votes the Greens get can be called into question, did they get those votes to protect the environment or in support of Independence - nobody knows. The next issue is the Greens support for the SNP.  When it comes to Independence they have always supported the SNPs tactics and policies on Independence.  When what would be more effective is a proactive Independence supporting opposition that makes the SNP work for their status as a...

So what do you do when you're talking to someone about voting for Alba on the list and they say "I'm no voting for that Alex Salmond" then go on to tell you all about the terrible things he's done to women and all about his ego. Or maybe it's the other way round and you're talking about voting for the SNP on the constituency and they say "I'm no voting for that Nicola Sturgeon, she cares more about gender than Independence and she tried to jail an innocent man" This is where personality politics leads us. To a situation where two people can agree on the substantive issue (Independence) but are blinded to the bigger picture because personalities are getting in the way. I have a personal hatred of personality politics, it isn't good for the voters and it isn't good for politicians. The fact is that politicians use their charisma and personality to garner power, firstly within their own party, to rise to the top, and subsequently with th...

I'm sure many of you have come across this already. It's fairly obvious to most that the low hanging fruit for the Alba party should be SNP voters. But...you talk to your SNP voting, possible SNP members, and they tell you that voting Alba will cost us Independence, we will lose indy MSPs, we need SNP 1&2 for an indy majority that Boris will recognise etc. They become very defensive, even aggressive towards you when you should both be on the same side. And you think, what the hell is going on, I thought we were on the same page, I thought these people wanted Independence - it's like talking to a unionist! You start thinking, are these people stupid, are they brainwashed? To understand, and overcome it, you need to understand what's going on in their brains. The brain works by forming connections, the more trusted the source or the more times the same input is received the stronger that connection becomes. You might remember the blue and black/gold and white dress op...

This one is for anyone or anyone you know who is voting SNP 1 & 2. I break it down for each region who you will let in by not voting Alba on the list (2nd) vote. Basically, the way it works is the more votes Alba gets the fewer of the following unionists will become MSPs. I've ordered them according to the order in which each unionist would lose their seat as the Alba vote rises.  If that doesn't make you consider Alba, I don't know what will. Central Scotland Monique McAdams (Lab) Meghan Gallacher (Con) Mark Griffin (Lab) Monica Lennon (Lab) Clearly, Monica Lennon is probably the best known on this list given her recent run for the leadership of Scottish Labour, and this would be a significant scalp and is possible if SNP voters really get behind Alba. Glasgow Paul Sweeney (Lab) Annie Wells (Con) Anas Sarwar (Lab) Pauline McNeill (Lab) Some good scalps in this list. Obviously, Annie Wells & Anas Sarwar are the two most well-known, and a concerted effort could see t...

OK, you're probably thinking I've been got at with a headline like that, but the question is why the SNP are insisting on sticking to this plan. Pete Wishart tweeted the following "An SNP majority is right in the balance. Any further slippage and it could be lost. It was an SNP majority that got us to a referendum last time and is the only way to one now. #BothVotesSNP" So the argument is based on the premise that only the SNP winning a majority will get Boris Johnson to grant a Section 30. Has Boris ever said that there was ever any situation in which he would grant a Section 30? I don't think so. He did say we should focus on the coronavirus pandemic and not pointless wrangling over Scottish Independence. Sounds a lot like Nicola Sturgeon's line of no referendum until after we have dealt with the pandemic. And of course, Boris isn't known for his respect for Scotland or its people. He has said “Government by a Scot is just not conceivable”, “Devolution a...

I have always found party politics to be largely off-putting. It inevitably attracts careerists, especially to the most popular party, who want the party money, machinery, and status to add legitimacy to their campaign and careers. Independent candidates, on the other hand, choose to reject all those advantages. Some will be doing this because they have fallen out with, kicked out, or been rejected by the established parties. Others will be standing on single issues, probably not expecting to win, but hoping to raise awareness of whatever issue it is they feel is not being addressed. Then of course you'll get the people doing it for a laugh or the attention, the joke candidates who are not stealing any votes from serious candidates and can be safely ignored. It doesn't need to be said that the chance of an independent candidate beating the favourite party candidate in any constituency is low, but the chances are better standing as a list candidate. It can only really be done by...